To Bat first or Bowl first? Strategy for the upcoming ICC Cricket World Cup 2019

2019 is finally here and along with it, the biggest extravaganza in the world of cricket - the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019!! The tournament is one of the world's most viewed sporting events and is considered the "flagship event of the international cricket calendar" by the International Cricket Council. This is the 12th edition of the Cricket World Cup scheduled to be hosted by England and Wales.

Have you ever thought about the innumerable factors influencing a cricket match outcome? 

1. The weather on the day of the match dictates whether it would end up in a high scoring or a low scoring affair. 
2. The condition of the pitch can also play an important role in the outcome. 
3. The toss... who doesn't dread losing the toss? 

While there are several factors influencing the outcome, one of the most difficult decisions that captains have to make is whether to bat first or bowl first. This is a crucial decision and a strongly debated topic. One key aspect to this decision making would be to look at history. See how teams fared batting first vs chasing, how this pattern varies across venues, how some teams have done better batting first vs chasing etc ... 

Can any Analytics help in making this decision ?

Following are very simple OAC (Oracle Analytics Cloud) visualizations that were built on all the world cup matches played from 1975 to 2015. Using OAC, it only took a few minutes to gain interesting insights on strategy to adopt for teams competing at the 2019 World Cup :

Eleven World Cups have been played so far and England hosted four (4) of them. Australia won the World Cup 5 times, India and West Indies come a distant second by winning 2 each, Sri Lanka and Pakistan won it only once.

A Marker in Finalists Strategy

Teams batting first won 63% of the time while teams chasing first only won 37% of the time. So if a team is skilled enough to enter the finals, batting first doubles its chances of holding that cup!!

Team wise Strategies that worked

Digging a bit deeper, this pattern varies by teams: for Australia and India batting first or second didn't seem to matter when they won the World Cup. For West Indies however, they only won by batting first. So if West Indies makes it to final at Lords this time around, their bet should definitely be on batting first.

Team Strategy when England is hosting

Since England is the host nation in the upcoming event, let's shift our focus to only those World Cups which were played in England. Interestingly, when hosted in England, finals where won most of the time (75%) by teams batting first. 
When it comes to semi finals, it's the opposite: teams batting second have won most semi finals !!
These numbers contrasts vigorously with semi-finals and finals hosted outside of England:
In all the other countries, teams batting first have won most finals and semi finals.

Venue-wise Strategy

Could venue even play a part in this pattern ? Let's consider the premier venues of England where the majority of the games in 2019 world cup are about to be played: Birmingham, Leeds and Lords. Teams playing there have donw equally well batting first or second. 
But if you are playing in Manchester (where the 2019 semifinals would be played), history suggests its better to chase, while at The Oval (London), teams batting first have fared way better.

Let's look at the venues where teams have won with the highest average runs margin. Birmingham, Taunton and Chester Le Street are the preferred grounds to bat first where the winning margin is pretty high

Lets now look at those venues where teams bowling first have won with the highest wickets margin. Canterbury, Lords and Leeds are the venues where teams chasing first have fared well. 

Looking at overall batting win rate across premier venues in England, Nottingham and The Oval are the most preferred venues to bat first. 

Team strategy across World Cups games

Some individual teams historically fare better when batting first vs chasing at World Cup matches, irrespective of venues and location. Australia, the top performer has mostly won by batting first (60%). In contrast, arch rivals New Zealand are way better chasers (60%) !! 

In the early days of World Cups or even other cricket matches for that matter, teams always preferred to bat first. Bat first, score big and put the opposition under pressure. But noticing the trend from 2007 World Cup onwards, stats show us that there is not much of a difference in batting first or chasing. Does this indicate that teams are getting better playing under pressure while chasing? Perhaps they are !

Conclusion

Most of the cricket enthusiasts would argue that batting first has been the best winning strategy so far, but data does not always support that position : captains winning the toss would benefit from looking at historical stats to make an informed decision. 
For the upcoming World Cup in England, insights from historical data suggests a few distinct approaches : 

Semi Final 1 (in Manchester) : data shows that Manchester has been a ground where teams have dominated while chasing. It also shows that, historically in England, semi finals were won by chasing. So the team winning the toss is more likely to win the match if they let the opposition bat first.

Semi Final 2 (in Birmingham) : if you win the toss in Birmingham, though the venue doesn't favor teams batting first or bowing, data also suggests that there has been big wins with runs margin (ie by batting first). The team winning the toss is more likely to win the match if they bat first.

Finals (Lord's) : Historically teams have won in finals in England by batting first. The team winning the toss is more likely to have their chance of lifting the World Cup if they bat first.

May the best team win the World Cup!!

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